應(yīng)用實(shí)物期權(quán)方法研究完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下的供應(yīng)鏈管理中的能力決策問題。通過對(duì)能力投資決策的價(jià)值分析，給出柔性條件下的能力決策規(guī)則，并研究了市場(chǎng)演進(jìn)的性質(zhì)、投資成本和缺貨成本對(duì)決策的影響。結(jié)果表明：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大(小)的市場(chǎng)、較高(低)的能力投資成本和較低(高)的缺貨成本將使得供應(yīng)鏈管理者推遲(提前)其擴(kuò)大能力決策的實(shí)施。

This paper applies the real-option approach to study the capacity decision in supply chain management under perfect competitive markets. Through analyzing the value of capacity investment decision, we give some rules of the capacity decision with flexibility. We also analyze the influence of three main factors upon the investment decision, which include the property of market evolvement, investment cost, and out of stock cost. The results show that a more (less) risky market, a higher (lower) capacity investment cost, or a lower (higher) out of stock cost is likely to postpone (advance) the implementing of capacity expansion.