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商業(yè)往事丨第83話:用機(jī)率管理健康

yYjs_江波龍 ? 來(lái)源:未知 ? 2023-03-11 12:45 ? 次閱讀

商業(yè)往事

每月分享幾則有趣的商業(yè)小故事(中英雙語(yǔ)),邀請(qǐng)大家和我們一起透過(guò)歷史故事,看存儲(chǔ)商業(yè)。

465b23b0-bfc7-11ed-bfe3-dac502259ad0.png ?

用機(jī)率管理健康

本文總計(jì)1416

預(yù)計(jì)閱讀6分鐘

(英文文章在中文文章之后)

2008年,谷歌的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人謝爾蓋?布爾發(fā)現(xiàn),他身體的每一個(gè)細(xì)胞都有LRRK2的基因突變。LRRK2是一種基因突變,這個(gè)基因可能引起帕金森病發(fā)的病機(jī)率較高。也就是每個(gè)帕金森氏癥患者都有LRRK2突變,也不是每個(gè)有LRRK2突變的人都會(huì)得帕金森氏癥。但是,如果一個(gè)人的細(xì)胞中有LRRK2的基因突變,他一生中得到帕金森氏癥的機(jī)率會(huì)增加30%到75%。相較之下,一個(gè)普通美國(guó)人患帕金森氏癥的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大約是1%。

布爾使用一組大數(shù)據(jù)做了他自己的研究,并得出結(jié)論,如果他不采取任何行動(dòng)來(lái)減少帕金森氏癥,他有50%的機(jī)會(huì)患上帕金森氏癥。得出這個(gè)結(jié)論后,布爾開(kāi)了一個(gè)部落客,這個(gè)部落客就命名為「LRRK2」。布爾還向媒體透露了這個(gè)消息。他的作法是希望藉此引起這方面的專家注意,甚至為他提供解決辦法。

此外,他還自己研究了LRRK2突變?cè)谌梭w的影像,他要自己找到方法,以降低自己得到帕金森氏癥的機(jī)會(huì)。

在他的研究中,他發(fā)現(xiàn)運(yùn)動(dòng),尤其是潛水的年輕人,可以降低60%患帕金森氏癥的幾率。此后,一周中總有幾個(gè)晚上,布爾在一天的工作后,就開(kāi)車上路到當(dāng)?shù)氐挠斡境亍T谀抢铮麚Q上泳褲,走到一個(gè)3米長(zhǎng)的跳板上,看著下面的水,然后潛水,然后開(kāi)始跳水。

布爾還嘗試涉足瑜伽、體操和搏擊。他嘗試了很多事來(lái)鍛煉自己的身體和精神。他說(shuō);「潛水本身很短暫,但很激烈」,他補(bǔ)充說(shuō):「你用力推開(kāi)水,然后必須馬上扭轉(zhuǎn)過(guò)來(lái)。它確實(shí)讓你的心率加快了。」

其他研究表明,攝取咖啡因與降低帕金森氏癥風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也有幫助。所以,有一段時(shí)間,布爾每天喝一兩杯咖啡。但他不習(xí)慣咖啡的味道。于是他改喝綠茶。每次泳池鍛煉身體時(shí),他就喝一杯綠茶,他希望透過(guò)生活方式來(lái)降低遺傳對(duì)他的影響。

「這一切都是現(xiàn)成的,」他說(shuō);「但假設(shè)根據(jù)飲食、鍛煉等因素,我可以將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低一半,降至 25% 左右。」

布爾說(shuō),通過(guò)飲食、運(yùn)動(dòng)等綜合考慮,他希望將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低一半,從50%左右降低到25%。然后,隨著神經(jīng)科學(xué)的穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,布爾希望將他的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)再降低一半,使他患帕金森氏癥的總體機(jī)會(huì)降到13%左右。

大約在那個(gè)時(shí)候,布爾還捐贈(zèng)了超過(guò)5000萬(wàn)美元,來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)或研究可能的藥物治療,甚至帕金森氏癥的治療方法。他希望這筆錢足以「發(fā)揮作用」。(當(dāng)時(shí),布爾的凈資產(chǎn)為150億美元。

但布爾并沒(méi)有就此止步。他想把他的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低到「10%以下」。雖然百分之十仍然比平均風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高十倍,但他最初的機(jī)會(huì)減少了五倍(即從50%下降到10%)。這離降低得病的機(jī)會(huì)還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。

我的一位醫(yī)生朋友曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò);病人不需要把他們的命運(yùn)交給醫(yī)生。他的意思是;照顧身體是病人自己的責(zé)任屬,而不是他的醫(yī)生。醫(yī)生的作用是提供專業(yè)意見(jiàn)供病人參考。

布爾寫道:「我很幸運(yùn)提早發(fā)現(xiàn)我很容易得到帕金森病」。「我現(xiàn)在有機(jī)會(huì)調(diào)整我的生活以減少得病的機(jī)率(例如,有證據(jù)表明運(yùn)動(dòng)可能對(duì)帕金森病有保護(hù)作用)。我也有機(jī)會(huì)在這種疾病可能影響我之前,就開(kāi)始進(jìn)行和支持對(duì)它的研究。而且,不管我自己的健康如何,它都能幫助我的家人和其他人。」

當(dāng)然,即使布爾什么都不做,他可能也不會(huì)得帕金森氏癥。但我們不應(yīng)該這樣想。最好假設(shè);如果我們什么都不做,沒(méi)有設(shè)法嘗試降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或讓它延遲發(fā)病,最壞的情況就是會(huì)發(fā)生。這樣,即使我們確實(shí)生病了,我們也不會(huì)有任何遺憾。

布爾在面對(duì)他的潛在疾病時(shí)表現(xiàn)出積極主動(dòng)的態(tài)度。當(dāng)我們面臨潛在的問(wèn)題和實(shí)際問(wèn)題時(shí),我們可以從他的例子中學(xué)習(xí)。我們應(yīng)該嘗試估計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并盡我們所能降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同樣,如果我們能做任何事情來(lái)增加成功的可能性,我們就應(yīng)該這樣做,以改善我們的生活。最后,我們的協(xié)同努力可以大大有助于避免問(wèn)題或增加我們成功的可能性。

Using a Positive Attitude to Face Problems

In 2008, Sergey Brin, Google’s co-founder, found that there were LRRK2 mutations in every cell of his body. LRRK2 is a genetic mutation which is linked to a higher rate of Parkinson’s disease. Not everyone with Parkinson's has the LRRK2 mutation, and not everyone with the LRRK2 mutation will get Parkinson’s. However, if one has the LRRK2 mutation, it means that one’s chance of getting Parkinson's is between 30 to 75 percent in one’s lifetime. For reference, the risk of an average American getting Parkinson’s is about one percent.

Brin did his own research using a large data set and concluded that he had a 50 percent chance of developing Parkinson’s if he didn’t do anything to curtail it. After this conclusion, Brin started a blog that was simply called “LRRK2.” He also told the media about his blog in order to try to attract experts to provide solutions for his reference.

In addition, he also studied the LRRK2 mutation in humans to try to find ways to reduce the chances of developing Parkinson's.

In his research, he learned of one study that found that young men who do exercise, especially diving, can reduce their chances of getting Parkinson's by 60 percent. So, several evenings of a week, Brin drives up the road to the local pool after a day’s work. There, he changes into his swim trunks, steps out onto a 3-meter springboard, peers at the water below, and dives into it.

Brin also tried to dabble in yoga, gymnastics and acrobatics. He tried many things to exert himself physically and mentally. But about the diving, he said, “The dive itself is brief but intense,” adding “You push off really hard and then have to twist right away. It does get your heart rate going.”

Other studies have shown that caffeine consumption is linked to a reduced risk of Parkinson’s. So, for a time, Brin drank one or two cups of coffee a day. But he couldn’t stand or get used to the taste of the coffee. So he switched to green tea.

With every pool workout and every cup of tea, he hopes to diminish his risk of getting Parkinson’s, counteracting his genetic predisposition with lifestyle changes.

Brin said that with a combination of diet, exercise, and so on, he hopes to cut his lifetime risk of developing Parkinson’s by half, from about 50 percent to 25 percent. Then, with the steady progress of neuroscience, Brin hopes that his risk will be cut in half again—bringing his overall chance of developing Parkinson's to around 13 percent.

Around that time, Brin also donated over US$50.00M to develop or investigate possible drug treatments or even cures for Parkinson’s. He hoped that this money would be enough to “really move the needle” in terms of making progress on treating and preventing Parkinson’s. (For reference, at that time, Brin’s net worth was around $15 billion.)

But Brin didn’t stop there. He wanted to lower his risk to under 10 percent. Although ten percent is still ten times higher than the average risk, it is a five-fold reduction from his original risk (i.e., from 50% down to 10%), which is much better than having a coin toss’s chance of getting the disease.

One of my doctor friends once said that patients don’t need to hand over their destiny to doctors. He meant that the real responsibility for one’s body belongs to the patient, not his or her doctor. The role of doctors is to provide professional opinions for the patient’s reference.

“I lucky know early in my life something I am substantially predisposed to,” Brin wrote. “I now have the opportunity to adjust my life to reduce those odds. I also have the opportunity to perform and support research into this disease long before it may affect me. And, regardless of my own health, it can help my family members as well as others.”

Of course, it’s possible that Brin wouldn’t get Parkinson’s even if he didn’t do anything. But we probably shouldn’t think that way. It's likely better to assume that the worst will happen if we don’t do anything. Doing so will help to motivate us to try to reduce the risk or at least delay the onset. That way, we won’t have any regrets, even if we do get sick.

Brin is fortunate in the sense that he has money to donate and because he found out about his genetic predisposition so early. However, all of us have conditions in our lives that could be improved or better accommodated in some way with effort on our part. And with the Internet, almost anyone can do a certain level of research and find experts with opinions on the maladies or situations that may affect us.

Brin demonstrated an aggressive and proactive attitude in facing his potential disease. We can learn from his example when we are facing potential problems and also actual problems. We should try to estimate the risk and do everything that we can to lower the risk. Similarly, if we can do anything to increase the probability of success, we should do so in order to improve our lives. In conclusion, a concerted effort on our part can go a long way in terms of avoiding a problem or increasing our likelihood of success.


原文標(biāo)題:商業(yè)往事丨第83話:用機(jī)率管理健康

文章出處:【微信公眾號(hào):江波龍電子】歡迎添加關(guān)注!文章轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處。


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原文標(biāo)題:商業(yè)往事丨第83話:用機(jī)率管理健康

文章出處:【微信號(hào):江波龍電子,微信公眾號(hào):江波龍電子】歡迎添加關(guān)注!文章轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處。

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